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Criterion
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Paper illustration for Failure Scenario Analysis.
Engineering
Failure Scenario Analysis
Paper illustration of a Learning Card with four fields for hypothesis, observation, insight, and action.
Product Discovery
Learning Card
Purposedifferent
Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it.In critical processes, it is not enough to plan only for the normal case. Failure Scenario Analysis looks at the path into failure and shows which failures, chains, and control gaps cause the most damage.The Learning Card connects traceable test results to a reasoned next action while keeping the limits of the insight visible.
Complexitydifferent
LowMediumLow
Timedifferent
45-90 min1-3 h25-40 min
Participantsdifferent
2-83-81-5
Formatdifferent
Workshop + asyncWorkshopWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning PlanFailure Scenarios, Risk Notes, Control Gaps, Test and Response ActionsLearning Card with evidence and next action
Tagsno overlap
AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery
FailureResilienceRisk
ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryLearning
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Often compared together

Methods with strong topical overlap with the current selection, not yet in the comparison.

Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Paper illustration of Riskiest Assumption Test with a method-specific labelled workspace.
Product Discovery
Riskiest Assumption Test
Paper illustration of Experiment Canvas with a method-specific labelled workspace.
Product Discovery
Experiment Canvas
Paper illustration for Fake Door Test
Product Discovery
Fake Door Test