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Criterion
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Paper illustration for Evaporating Cloud.
Systems Thinking
Evaporating Cloud
Purposedifferent
Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it.The method makes visible why two seemingly incompatible demands arise and which assumption must be tested to resolve the conflict.
Complexitydifferent
LowMedium
Timedifferent
45-90 min60-120 min
Participantssame
2-82-8
Formatdifferent
Workshop + asyncWorkshop
Outputdifferent
Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning PlanConflict Cloud, Assumption List, Breakthrough Ideas, Next Experiments
Tags1 shared
AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery
Theory of ConstraintsAssumptionsSystems thinking
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Often compared together

Methods with strong topical overlap with the current selection, not yet in the comparison.

Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Paper illustration of DIBB with its method-specific working model.
Product Strategy
DIBB
Paper illustration for Future Reality Tree.
Systems Thinking
Future Reality Tree
A hypothetical failure makes concrete risks, signals, and fitting mitigations visible.
Decision Making
Pre-Mortem