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Criterion
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Paper illustration for Dot Estimation.
Facilitation
Dot Estimation
Paper illustration for Fake Door Test
Product Discovery
Fake Door Test
Purposedifferent
Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it.When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets.When demand is still unclear, it measures interest in a feature before it is built. It separates real behavior from polite agreement and deliberately keeps build effort small.
Complexitydifferent
LowLowMedium
Timedifferent
45-90 min5-20 min1-5 Tage
Participantsdifferent
2-83-20Nutzertraffic
Formatdifferent
Workshop + asyncWorkshopAsync
Outputdifferent
Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning PlanEffort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion TargetsClick Data, Interest Signal, Learning Decision
Tagsno overlap
AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery
EstimationEffortRisk
ValidationExperimentsDemandDiscovery
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Methods with strong topical overlap with the current selection, not yet in the comparison.

Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Paper illustration of Riskiest Assumption Test with a method-specific labelled workspace.
Product Discovery
Riskiest Assumption Test
Paper illustration of Experiment Canvas with a method-specific labelled workspace.
Product Discovery
Experiment Canvas
Paper illustration of a Learning Card with four fields for hypothesis, observation, insight, and action.
Product Discovery
Learning Card