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| Criterion |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Operations Kepner-Tregoe |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | For a disturbance that's hard to pin down, the method cleanly separates problem, cause, and decision. It reduces mixing when symptoms allow several interpretations. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | High | High |
Timedifferent | 45-90 min | 1-4 Wochen | 2-8 h |
Participantsdifferent | 2-8 | 6-30 Experten | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Problem Analysis, Decision Analysis, Risk Plan |
Tags1 shared | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | Problem solvingRoot causeDecisionOperations |
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