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| Criterion |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |  Decision Making Decision Tree |  Decision Making Pre-Mortem |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. | For decisions with follow-on paths and dependencies, a linear comparison is often not enough. A Decision Tree shows how options branch under conditions and which consequences hang on each branch. | In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | Medium | Low |
Timedifferent | 45-90 min | 30-90 min | 20–45 min |
Participantsdifferent | 2-8 | 1-6 | Small cross-functional group |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan | Decision Tree, Option Map, Assumption List | Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log |
Tags1 shared | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery | DecisionTreeOptions | RiskDecisionFailurePlanning |
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