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Criterion
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Decision Tree method illustration showing its working structure
Decision Making
Decision Tree
Paper illustration for Failure Scenario Analysis.
Engineering
Failure Scenario Analysis
Purposedifferent
Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it.For decisions with follow-on paths and dependencies, a linear comparison is often not enough. A Decision Tree shows how options branch under conditions and which consequences hang on each branch.In critical processes, it is not enough to plan only for the normal case. Failure Scenario Analysis looks at the path into failure and shows which failures, chains, and control gaps cause the most damage.
Complexitydifferent
LowMediumMedium
Timedifferent
45-90 min30-90 min1-3 h
Participantsdifferent
2-81-63-8
Formatdifferent
Workshop + asyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshop
Outputdifferent
Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning PlanDecision Tree, Option Map, Assumption ListFailure Scenarios, Risk Notes, Control Gaps, Test and Response Actions
Tagsno overlap
AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery
DecisionTreeOptions
FailureResilienceRisk
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A hypothetical failure makes concrete risks, signals, and fitting mitigations visible.
Decision Making
Pre-Mortem
Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Paper illustration for Constraint Analysis.
Decision Making
Constraint Analysis
Paper illustration of DIBB with its method-specific working model.
Product Strategy
DIBB