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| Criterion |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |  Systems Thinking Behavior Over Time Graph |  Decision Making Pre-Mortem |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. | A Behavior Over Time Graph shows how a metric or observation develops over time. The method makes trends, breaks, and recurring patterns visible that get lost in snapshots. | In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures. |
Complexitysame | Low | Low | Low |
Timedifferent | 45-90 min | 20-45 min | 20–45 min |
Participantsdifferent | 2-8 | 1-10 | Small cross-functional group |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan | Behavior Over Time Graph, Trend Hypotheses, Key Events | Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log |
Tagsno overlap | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery | Systems thinkingPatternsDynamics | RiskDecisionFailurePlanning |
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