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Criterion
Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Paper illustration for Wideband Delphi.
Decision Making
Wideband Delphi
Purposedifferent
When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first.A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes.
Complexitydifferent
MediumHigh
Timedifferent
45-60 min1-4 h or multiple rounds
Participantsdifferent
2-84-12 Experten
Formatsame
Workshop + asyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk rankingEstimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes
Tagsno overlap
AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation
EstimationExpertsForecasting
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Often compared together

Methods with strong topical overlap with the current selection, not yet in the comparison.

Paper illustration of Riskiest Assumption Test with a method-specific labelled workspace.
Product Discovery
Riskiest Assumption Test
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Anonymous individual judgments pass through feedback loops to form a distribution.
Decision Making
Delphi Method