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Criterion
Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Paper illustration for Three-Point Estimation.
Decision Making
Three-Point Estimation
Purposedifferent
When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first.A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes.
Complexitysame
MediumMedium
Timedifferent
45-60 min10-30 min je Item
Participantsdifferent
2-81-8
Formatsame
Workshop + asyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk rankingThree-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes
Tagsno overlap
AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation
EstimationUncertaintyForecasting
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Methods with strong topical overlap with the current selection, not yet in the comparison.

Paper illustration for PERT Estimation.
Decision Making
PERT Estimation
Paper illustration of Riskiest Assumption Test with a method-specific labelled workspace.
Product Discovery
Riskiest Assumption Test
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing