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Criterion
Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Paper illustration for PERT Estimation.
Decision Making
PERT Estimation
A/B Testing workspace showing the question, observations, and next decision.
Growth
A/B Testing
Purposedifferent
When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first.On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes.When two variants compete, discussions quickly decide by taste rather than effect. A/B Testing checks behavior under controlled conditions and separates real improvement from chance or expectation effects.
Complexitydifferent
MediumMediumHigh
Timedifferent
45-60 min15-45 min1-4 Wochen
Participantsdifferent
2-81-81-6
Formatdifferent
Workshop + asyncWorkshop + asyncAsync
Outputdifferent
Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk rankingPERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk NotesExperiment results, Decision log, Learning summary
Tagsno overlap
AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation
EstimationUncertaintyRisk
ExperimentsGrowthAnalyticsValidation
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Methods with strong topical overlap with the current selection, not yet in the comparison.

Paper illustration of Riskiest Assumption Test with a method-specific labelled workspace.
Product Discovery
Riskiest Assumption Test
Paper illustration for Smoke Test.
Product Discovery
Smoke Test
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Paper illustration for Dot Estimation.
Facilitation
Dot Estimation