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Criterion
Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Paper illustration for Ideal Days.
Agile
Ideal Days
Paper illustration for Bucket System.
Agile
Bucket System
Purposedifferent
When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first.When effort needs to be thought of as real working time, it offers a simple common denominator for comparison. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Ideal Day Estimates, Assumption Notes, and Capacity Caveats.When a large batch of work needs a fast, rough estimate, it sorts items into predefined size buckets. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as a Bucketed Backlog, Relative Estimates, and Split Candidates.
Complexitydifferent
MediumLowMedium
Timedifferent
45-60 min15-60 min30-90 min
Participantsdifferent
2-82-93-12
Formatdifferent
Workshop + asyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshop
Outputdifferent
Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk rankingIdeal Day Estimates, Assumption Notes, Capacity CaveatsBucketed Backlog, Relative Estimates, Split Candidates
Tagsno overlap
AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation
EstimationEffortAgile
EstimationBacklogRelative sizing
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Methods with strong topical overlap with the current selection, not yet in the comparison.

Paper illustration for Affinity Estimation.
Agile
Affinity Estimation
Paper illustration for Dot Estimation.
Facilitation
Dot Estimation
Paper illustration of Riskiest Assumption Test with a method-specific labelled workspace.
Product Discovery
Riskiest Assumption Test