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Criterion
Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Paper illustration for Current Reality Tree
Systems Thinking
Current Reality Tree
Purposedifferent
When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first.A Current Reality Tree condenses many symptoms into a few causal chains. The method makes visible which core problems drive several negative effects at once.
Complexitydifferent
MediumHigh
Timedifferent
45-60 min2-6 h
Participantsdifferent
2-83-8
Formatdifferent
Workshop + asyncWorkshop
Outputdifferent
Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk rankingCurrent Reality Tree, Core Problems, Intervention Ideas
Tagsno overlap
AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation
Systems thinkingRoot causeConstraintsCausality
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Often compared together

Methods with strong topical overlap with the current selection, not yet in the comparison.

Paper illustration of Riskiest Assumption Test with a method-specific labelled workspace.
Product Discovery
Riskiest Assumption Test
Paper illustration for Theory of Constraints Thinking Process.
Systems Thinking
Theory of Constraints Thinking Process
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing