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| Criterion |  Agile Affinity Estimation |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Decision Making Pre-Mortem |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When many tasks need to be classified quickly, it sorts them by perceived effort and similarity. It reduces the effort of fine-grained estimation for large volumes. | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | Low |
Timedifferent | 30-90 min | 15-45 min | 20–45 min |
Participantsdifferent | 3-12 | 1-8 | Small cross-functional group |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Affinity Size Map, Grouped Estimates, Unclear Items | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Risk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationBacklogRelative sizing | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | RiskDecisionFailurePlanning |
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Methods with strong topical overlap with the current selection, not yet in the comparison.
