Complete firstAssumption Surfacing
The demand or messaging assumption is clearly formulated and has a success threshold.
Without: Without assumption and threshold, every result can be interpreted both ways and the test creates no learning progress.
RunsheetProduct Discovery
Smoke Test
ComplexityLow
Time1-5 Tage
ParticipantsNutzertraffic
FormatAsync
MaturityEstablished
01
Prerequisite
What needs to be finished first
02
Preparation
What needs to be ready before start
Materials
Minimal visibility test (ad, post, short landing page); tracking setup (click, lead, conversion); disclosure page if promise goes beyond current state; definition of success threshold.
People / roles
One test owner for setup and evaluation; one marketer for traffic and targeting; one analyst for reporting; optionally one copywriter for messaging.
Pre-read
Hypothesis as one sentence; target signal (for example at least 3% conversion to email submission with 2,000 clicks); target group and channel; budget for ads or outreach; legal and ethical review.
Time needed
1-5 days runtime, plus half-day setup
Setup
Minimal setup: short landing page with value proposition, email field or clearly defined lead signal. Tracking implemented and tested. Disclosure about offer status if not self-explanatory.
03
Core question
The one question this method answers
Does the minimally visible offer produce a clear interest signal above the predefined threshold?
04
Flow
Marker: Phase
| Step | Duration | Action | Hint |
|---|---|---|---|
1Phase 1: Hypothesis, signal, threshold | Setup, 2-4 h | Formulate hypothesis ("If we show solo tax advisors an SKR translation page, at least 3% leave their email"). Fix success threshold and evaluation window. | Threshold from market benchmarks or previous tests, not wishful thinking. Realistic conversion rates for cold ad clicks are often 1-5%. |
2Phase 2: Build minimal setup | Setup, 4-8 h | Build landing page: value proposition, call to action, lead capture. Implement tracking. If promise goes beyond current state, provide clear status information. | Polished landing pages are not required. A cleanly structured, focused page beats a fancy page with unclear CTA. |
3Phase 3: Run traffic | Runtime, 1-5 days | Ads, organic posts or targeted outreach. Check tracking daily, log anomalies. Intervene early if messaging is clearly misleading. | Traffic source strongly influences conversion. Paid cold traffic is a different learning signal from newsletter traffic. Evaluate separately if both run. |
4Phase 4: Evaluation and decision | Synthesis, 2-4 h | Compare conversion data against threshold. Spot-check lead quality. Document learning decision: keep building, measure differently, stop. | Clearly missing the threshold is also learning. Success is not reaching the threshold, but being able to make a decision. |
05
Artifact
What comes out at the end
Form
Experiment report with hypothesis, threshold, setup description, traffic sources, conversion data, lead-quality sample, learning decision and follow-up experiments.
Versioning / ownership
One entry per experiment with date and hypothesis. Link follow-up experiments to previous learnings. For messaging comparisons, label A/B variants.
Tool alternatives
- Carrd, Framer or Webflow for fast landing pages
- Google Analytics 4 or Plausible for tracking
- Mailchimp or ConvertKit for lead capture
- Notion or Confluence for report
experiment-plan-markdown.md
Short plan for hypothesis, test design, success criteria, and decision.
Experiment Plan
Hypothesis
We believe that ...
Target audience
Who are we testing for?
Test design
What exactly will participants or users do?
Success criterion
We count the test as positive if ...
Risks and limits
What can the test not prove?
Decision afterward
If positive: ... If negative: ...
Owner and date
...
06
Example output
Concrete filled scenario, fictional example
smoke-test-beispiel.md
Concrete filled scenario, fictional example
Smoke Test — Demand for SKR translation service (2026-05-08 to 2026-05-13)
Hypothesis: At least 3% of clickers leave email for SKR translation service within 5 days.
Setup: One-page landing page with headline "Client migration without losing your weekend", three bullet points, email field. Note: "We launch in 4 weeks, sign up for pilot". Tracking via Plausible.
Traffic sources:
- LinkedIn Ads (target group tax advisors DACH): 1,840 clicks, 92 leads (5%).
- Tax-advisor forum post: 312 clicks, 7 leads (2.2%).
- Tax-advisor association email newsletter: 480 clicks, 38 leads (7.9%).
Lead quality: 12 leads contacted as sample, 9 match target group (solo tax advisors), 3 are larger firms or bookkeepers (mismatch).
Learning decision: Threshold clearly exceeded (4.0% weighted average). Start pilot with first 10 leads (Concierge MVP). Owner: @anna. Follow-up test: pricing variant in 4 weeks.
07
Pitfalls
Recognize symptoms and steer against them
Trap
Threshold set afterward
Symptom
Data comes in, then threshold is defined, bias guaranteed.
What to do
Write threshold into report header in advance. Adjust only in follow-up experiment, not retroactively.
Trap
Messaging deceives
Symptom
Conversion high, but lead quality low, expectations were set incorrectly.
What to do
Pre-launch check with 3 people from target group. If expectation and reality mismatch, sharpen messaging, do not beautify tracking.
Trap
Traffic source creates wrong population
Symptom
Ads reach many clickers, but outside target group.
What to do
Check targeting, evaluate sources separately. Pause ads if mismatch is systematic.
Trap
Runtime too short
Symptom
Data extrapolated after 12 h, weekday pattern not captured.
What to do
Run at least 3-5 days. Consider weekday distribution.
Trap
Sensitive promises without disclosure
Symptom
Landing page promises something that does not exist, without status note.
What to do
Clear status information ("We launch in X weeks", "Service in development"). Disclosure protects trust and legal position.
08
Stop criteria
Done signals checkable in under a minute
Hypothesis is not measurably formulated.
Threshold is not fixed in advance.
Tracking unreliable or GDPR not covered.
Target group not reachable through channel, traffic too small for statistics.
Sensitive promises without ethically clean disclosure.
Runtime under 24 h, weekday pattern cannot be captured.
Finished the runsheet?
Go to the profile for purpose, similar methods, and sources or continue to the next method in the catalog.