methodatlas
Session Builder

Plan my session

Plan a concrete work block with agenda, roles, preparation, and a copyable result artifact.

Method session2-4 workshop days spread across several weeks plus researchWorkshopScenario Set

Session: Scenario Planning

The plan translates the method into a concrete facilitated work block. Your inputs flow directly into the session brief and work artifact.

Derived automatically

Method session with 4-12. The plan uses the existing method logic and the runsheet.

Runsheet
Participation logic
Team round, shared work and alignment

Use the session for shared understanding. Contributions are collected visibly, assumptions are aligned, and open differences remain traceable in the artifact.

Outcome logic
Finish artifact

The session works directly toward Scenario Set. After the session, the artifact should be shareable, reviewable, or reusable.

  1. 1

    Phase 1: Collect drivers

    3-4 h

    Collect external drivers (political, economic, social, technological, ecological, legal). Rate impact direction and uncertainty for each driver. Hint: Focus on drivers the company does not control. Internal factors do not belong in driving forces.

    FacilitatorScenario Set
  2. 2

    Phase 2: Critical uncertainties

    2 h

    Select the two drivers with the highest impact and uncertainty. They form the 2x2 matrix. Name each axis with polarities. Hint: More than two axes explode combinatorics. If one driver dominates, one-dimensional scenarios may be enough.

    FacilitatorStrategic Implications
  3. 3

    Phase 3: Scenario narratives

    3-4 h

    For each quadrant, create one scenario: name, narrative story over 5-15 years, implications for market, stakeholders, business model. Hint: Narratives must be plausible and distinct. If all scenarios sound alike, the matrix was chosen poorly.

    FacilitatorRobust Options
  4. 4

    Phase 4: Implications and indicators

    3 h

    Derive implications for the company per scenario (market, product, capabilities). Define early indicators (signposts) that show which scenario is materializing. Hint: Indicators are observable events, not gut feelings. Use 2-4 indicators per scenario with measurement method.

    FacilitatorScenario Set
  5. 5

    Phase 5: Robust strategies

    3 h

    Derive strategic options: what would make sense in several scenarios (robust strategy), what only in one (bet). Decider prioritizes. Hint: Robust strategies become no-regret measures. Bets need indicator-driven triggers, otherwise they are pursued blindly.

    OwnerStrategic Implications
  6. 6

    Publish artifact

    10 min

    Check the artifact for completeness, define location, set version or status, and name review recipients.

    OwnerScenario Set
Usable artifact

Session Brief

For invitations, boards, tickets, PR descriptions, or workshop notes.

session-brief.md

Session Brief: Scenario Planning

Goal

Artifact: Scenario Set

Working Question

Which combinations of uncertain drivers create plausibly different futures, and which strategic options are robust in more than one future?

Context

PESTLE analysis, market and trend reports; existing strategy forecasts; interviews with external experts; relevant regulatory developments.

Setup

  • Format: Method session
  • Duration: 2-4 workshop days spread across several weeks plus research
  • Mode: Workshop
  • Participants: One strategy facilitator; 6-12 participants with different perspectives (internal, external, science); stakeholder with decision mandate; scribe.
  • Owner: One strategy facilitator
  • Participation mode: Team round, shared work and alignment
  • Outcome logic: Finish artifact

Participation Logic

Use the session for shared understanding. Contributions are collected visibly, assumptions are aligned, and open differences remain traceable in the artifact.

Outcome Logic

The session works directly toward Scenario Set. After the session, the artifact should be shareable, reviewable, or reusable.

Input

Whiteboard or Miro with driver cards; template for 2x2 matrix of critical uncertainties; scenario templates (name, narrative, implications, indicators); workshop agenda across several sessions.

Preparation

Schedule three to four sessions: collect drivers, build scenarios, derive implications, evaluate strategic options. Each session 3-4 h.

Agenda

  1. Phase 1: Collect drivers (3-4 h) Owner: Facilitator Action: Collect external drivers (political, economic, social, technological, ecological, legal). Rate impact direction and uncertainty for each driver. Hint: Focus on drivers the company does not control. Internal factors do not belong in driving forces. Output: Scenario Set

  2. Phase 2: Critical uncertainties (2 h) Owner: Facilitator Action: Select the two drivers with the highest impact and uncertainty. They form the 2x2 matrix. Name each axis with polarities. Hint: More than two axes explode combinatorics. If one driver dominates, one-dimensional scenarios may be enough. Output: Strategic Implications

  3. Phase 3: Scenario narratives (3-4 h) Owner: Facilitator Action: For each quadrant, create one scenario: name, narrative story over 5-15 years, implications for market, stakeholders, business model. Hint: Narratives must be plausible and distinct. If all scenarios sound alike, the matrix was chosen poorly. Output: Robust Options

  4. Phase 4: Implications and indicators (3 h) Owner: Facilitator Action: Derive implications for the company per scenario (market, product, capabilities). Define early indicators (signposts) that show which scenario is materializing. Hint: Indicators are observable events, not gut feelings. Use 2-4 indicators per scenario with measurement method. Output: Scenario Set

  5. Phase 5: Robust strategies (3 h) Owner: Owner Action: Derive strategic options: what would make sense in several scenarios (robust strategy), what only in one (bet). Decider prioritizes. Hint: Robust strategies become no-regret measures. Bets need indicator-driven triggers, otherwise they are pursued blindly. Output: Strategic Implications

  6. Publish artifact (10 min) Owner: Owner Action: Check the artifact for completeness, define location, set version or status, and name review recipients. Output: Scenario Set

Closeout

  • Update result artifact: Scenario Set
  • Define location, version, and review recipients.
  • Define owner, next step, and review date.
Usable artifact

Work artifact

Pre-filled starting point based on the matching template.

work-artifact.md

Scenario Set: Scenario Planning

Working Question

Which combinations of uncertain drivers create plausibly different futures, and which strategic options are robust in more than one future?

Context

PESTLE analysis, market and trend reports; existing strategy forecasts; interviews with external experts; relevant regulatory developments.

Participants

  • Owner: One strategy facilitator
  • Participants: One strategy facilitator; 6-12 participants with different perspectives (internal, external, science); stakeholder with decision mandate; scribe.

Input

Whiteboard or Miro with driver cards; template for 2x2 matrix of critical uncertainties; scenario templates (name, narrative, implications, indicators); workshop agenda across several sessions.

Template

Scenario Planning Working Template

Goal

Explore future uncertainty and compare strategic options against multiple plausible futures.

Context

When and for what do we use this method?

Input

Which data, observations, decisions, or materials are available?

Working area

  • Focal question:
  • Drivers:
  • Critical uncertainties:
  • Scenario set:
  • Strategic implications:

Output artifacts

  • Scenario narratives:
  • Robust options:
  • Implication notes:

Open questions

  • ...

Next step

Owner, date, and success signal.

Completion Check

  • Scenario Set is complete enough for review:
  • Location:
  • Version / status:
  • Review by:
  • Next step:

Next Step

  • Review result
  • Mark open questions
  • Schedule review or decision
Template base

Scenario Planning Working Template

View templateCompact working template for Scenario Planning with drivers, uncertainties, scenarios, and implications.
markdown

scenario-planning-working-template.md

Compact working template for Scenario Planning with drivers, uncertainties, scenarios, and implications.

Scenario Planning Working Template

Goal

Explore future uncertainty and compare strategic options against multiple plausible futures.

Context

When and for what do we use this method?

Input

Which data, observations, decisions, or materials are available?

Working area

  • Focal question:
  • Drivers:
  • Critical uncertainties:
  • Scenario set:
  • Strategic implications:

Output artifacts

  • Scenario narratives:
  • Robust options:
  • Implication notes:

Open questions

  • ...

Next step

Owner, date, and success signal.

Ready to use when
  • Working question, owner, and target artifact are visible.
  • The result fits Scenario Set.
  • Create a scenario baseline per strategy cycle with date. Track indicators as an ongoing table. If indicators point in one direction, update the scenario baseline.
  • Open questions are noted as follow-ups.
  • The next review or decision point is scheduled.
ProfileRunsheet