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Criterion
Paper illustration for Three-Point Estimation.
Decision Making
Three-Point Estimation
Game Day workspace showing the question, observations, and next decision.
DevOps
Game Day
Paper illustration for PERT Estimation.
Decision Making
PERT Estimation
Purposedifferent
A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes.In preparing for rare incidents, the method tests response capability under controlled conditions. It shows where assumptions about stability, roles, and recovery are too optimistic.On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes.
Complexitydifferent
MediumHighMedium
Timedifferent
10-30 min je ItemHalber Tag15-45 min
Participantsdifferent
1-85-201-8
Formatdifferent
Workshop + asyncWorkshopWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption NotesSimulation Notes, Gaps List, Updated RunbooksPERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes
Tagsno overlap
EstimationUncertaintyForecasting
ResilienceOperationsIncident
EstimationUncertaintyRisk
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Often compared together

Methods with strong topical overlap with the current selection, not yet in the comparison.

Paper illustration for Dot Estimation.
Facilitation
Dot Estimation
Paper illustration for Failure Mode and Effects Analysis
Operations
Failure Mode and Effects Analysis
Paper illustration for Failure Scenario Analysis.
Engineering
Failure Scenario Analysis
Incident Command workspace showing the question, observations, and next decision.
DevOps
Incident Command