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Criterion
Paper illustration for Three-Point Estimation.
Decision Making
Three-Point Estimation
Paper illustration for Current Reality Tree
Systems Thinking
Current Reality Tree
Purposedifferent
A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes.A Current Reality Tree condenses many symptoms into a few causal chains. The method makes visible which core problems drive several negative effects at once.
Complexitydifferent
MediumHigh
Timedifferent
10-30 min je Item2-6 h
Participantsdifferent
1-83-8
Formatdifferent
Workshop + asyncWorkshop
Outputdifferent
Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption NotesCurrent Reality Tree, Core Problems, Intervention Ideas
Tagsno overlap
EstimationUncertaintyForecasting
Systems thinkingRoot causeConstraintsCausality
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Often compared together

Methods with strong topical overlap with the current selection, not yet in the comparison.

Paper illustration for Theory of Constraints Thinking Process.
Systems Thinking
Theory of Constraints Thinking Process
Paper illustration for Causal Factor Analysis.
Operations
Causal Factor Analysis
Causal Loop Diagram workspace showing the question, observations, and next decision.
Systems Thinking
Causal Loop Diagram
Iceberg Model method illustration showing its working structure
Systems Thinking
Iceberg Model