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| Criterion |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Delivery Value Stream Mapping |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | When delivery work dissolves into wait times, handoffs, and hidden effort, Value Stream Mapping makes the actual flow visible. The method exposes bottlenecks, idle time, and feedback loops so lead time and improvement levers become tangible. |
Complexitysame | Medium | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 15-45 min | 10-30 min je Item | 1-3 h |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 1-8 | 4-10 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Current-state map, Future-state map, Bottleneck list |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | LeanFlowWasteDelivery |
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Methods with strong topical overlap with the current selection, not yet in the comparison.
