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| Criterion |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Growth North Star Metric |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | When product teams track many metrics, the view of the actual customer outcome easily gets lost. A North Star Metric bundles growth, usage, and value contribution into one signal that makes the system's direction visible. |
Complexitysame | Medium | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 15-45 min | 10-30 min je Item | 1-2 h |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 1-8 | 3-8 |
Formatsame | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | North Star metric, Input metric tree, Measurement cadence |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | GrowthMetricsAlignmentRetention |
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