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| Criterion |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Growth Hooked Model |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | The Hooked Model helps clarify engagement loops, user behavior, and experiments. It makes repeat behavior measurable and captures the result as a hooked loop, trigger map, and reward design. |
Complexitysame | Medium | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | 15-45 min | 10-30 min je Item | Multiple workshops over several weeks |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 1-8 | 2-8 |
Formatsame | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | Hooked loop, Trigger map, Reward design, Ethics check |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | GrowthBehaviorRetention |
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