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| Criterion |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Agile NoEstimates |  Decision Making Wideband Delphi |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | When estimating slows a team down more than it helps, it shifts the focus to flow, small slices, and real lead time. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, and Slicing Rules. | A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | High |
Timedifferent | 15-45 min | laufend | 1-4 h or multiple rounds |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 2-12 | 4-12 Experten |
Formatsame | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, Slicing Rules | Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes |
Tags1 shared | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | EstimationForecastingFlow | EstimationExpertsForecasting |
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