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Criterion
Paper illustration for PERT Estimation.
Decision Making
PERT Estimation
Paper illustration for Monte Carlo Forecasting.
Delivery
Monte Carlo Forecasting
Value Stream Mapping workspace showing the question, observations, and next decision.
Delivery
Value Stream Mapping
Purposedifferent
On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes.Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication.When delivery work dissolves into wait times, handoffs, and hidden effort, Value Stream Mapping makes the actual flow visible. The method exposes bottlenecks, idle time, and feedback loops so lead time and improvement levers become tangible.
Complexitydifferent
MediumHighMedium
Timedifferent
15-45 min30-90 min Setup, danach laufend1-3 h
Participantsdifferent
1-81-84-10
Formatdifferent
Workshop + asyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshop
Outputdifferent
PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk NotesForecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk CommunicationCurrent-state map, Future-state map, Bottleneck list
Tagsno overlap
EstimationUncertaintyRisk
ForecastingFlowDelivery
LeanFlowWasteDelivery
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Often compared together

Methods with strong topical overlap with the current selection, not yet in the comparison.

Paper illustration for Three-Point Estimation.
Decision Making
Three-Point Estimation
Paper illustration for Dot Estimation.
Facilitation
Dot Estimation