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Criterion
Paper illustration for PERT Estimation.
Decision Making
PERT Estimation
Paper illustration for Future Reality Tree.
Systems Thinking
Future Reality Tree
Purposedifferent
On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes.A Future Reality Tree shows how desired actions are meant to lead to a better system state. The method checks whether a path of change holds together logically before time flows into implementation.
Complexitydifferent
MediumHigh
Timedifferent
15-45 min2-4 h
Participantsdifferent
1-83-8
Formatdifferent
Workshop + asyncWorkshop
Outputdifferent
PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk NotesFuture Reality Tree, Negative Branches, Assumption List, Improved Injections
Tagsno overlap
EstimationUncertaintyRisk
Theory of ConstraintsSystems thinkingChange
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Often compared together

Methods with strong topical overlap with the current selection, not yet in the comparison.

Paper illustration for Dot Estimation.
Facilitation
Dot Estimation
Paper illustration for Evaporating Cloud.
Systems Thinking
Evaporating Cloud
Paper illustration for Intervention Mapping.
Systems Thinking
Intervention Mapping
Paper illustration of Leverage Points with its method-specific working model.
Systems Thinking
Leverage Points