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| Criterion |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Facilitation Dot Estimation |  Growth North Star Metric |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets. | When product teams track many metrics, the view of the actual customer outcome easily gets lost. A North Star Metric bundles growth, usage, and value contribution into one signal that makes the system's direction visible. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Low | Medium |
Timedifferent | 15-45 min | 5-20 min | 1-2 h |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 3-20 | 3-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion Targets | North Star metric, Input metric tree, Measurement cadence |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | EstimationEffortRisk | GrowthMetricsAlignmentRetention |
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