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| Criterion |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Systems Thinking Current Reality Tree |  Operations Failure Mode and Effects Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | A Current Reality Tree condenses many symptoms into a few causal chains. The method makes visible which core problems drive several negative effects at once. | For a process, product, or service with noticeable failure risks, the method assesses possible failure modes in advance. It directs attention to combinations of occurrence, effect, and detectability. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | High |
Timedifferent | 15-45 min | 2-6 h | 2-6 h |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 3-8 | 3-10 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Current Reality Tree, Core Problems, Intervention Ideas | FMEA Table, Risk Priority, Mitigation Actions |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | Systems thinkingRoot causeConstraintsCausality | RiskQualityOperationsRoot cause |
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