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| Criterion |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Product Strategy Counter Metrics |  Product Discovery Smoke Test |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | When a headline metric could mask side effects, it adds guardrail signals against unwanted outcomes. It connects customer value, product logic, and decision priorities. The result is captured as a counter-metric list and guardrail definitions. | When demand only needs to be roughly verified, it tests interest with minimal effort. It measures whether people would take a next step at all. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Low | Low |
Timedifferent | 15-45 min | 30-60 min | 1-5 Tage |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 2-6 | Nutzertraffic |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Async |
Outputdifferent | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Counter Metric List, Guardrail Definitions | Interest Metrics, Conversion Signal, Learning Note |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | MetricsMeasurementStrategyExperiments | ValidationExperimentsDemandGrowth |
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