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| Criterion |  Decision Making PERT Estimation |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |  Operations Failure Mode and Effects Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. | For a process, product, or service with noticeable failure risks, the method assesses possible failure modes in advance. It directs attention to combinations of occurrence, effect, and detectability. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Low | High |
Timedifferent | 15-45 min | 45-90 min | 2-6 h |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 2-8 | 3-10 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | PERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan | FMEA Table, Risk Priority, Mitigation Actions |
Tags1 shared | EstimationUncertaintyRisk | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery | RiskQualityOperationsRoot cause |
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