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| Criterion |  Agile NoEstimates |  Decision Making Three-Point Estimation |  Growth North Star Metric |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When estimating slows a team down more than it helps, it shifts the focus to flow, small slices, and real lead time. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, and Slicing Rules. | A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes. | When product teams track many metrics, the view of the actual customer outcome easily gets lost. A North Star Metric bundles growth, usage, and value contribution into one signal that makes the system's direction visible. |
Complexitysame | Medium | Medium | Medium |
Timedifferent | laufend | 10-30 min je Item | 1-2 h |
Participantsdifferent | 2-12 | 1-8 | 3-8 |
Formatsame | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, Slicing Rules | Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption Notes | North Star metric, Input metric tree, Measurement cadence |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationForecastingFlow | EstimationUncertaintyForecasting | GrowthMetricsAlignmentRetention |
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