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| Criterion |  Agile NoEstimates |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Growth Flywheel |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When estimating slows a team down more than it helps, it shifts the focus to flow, small slices, and real lead time. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, and Slicing Rules. | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | Growth often breaks down where a reinforcing mechanism builds up too much friction. A Flywheel shows the cycle of value, repetition, and reinforcement meant to sustain growth. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | Medium |
Timedifferent | laufend | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | 60-120 min |
Participantsdifferent | 2-12 | 1-8 | 3-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, Slicing Rules | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Flywheel Map, Friction Points, Growth Levers, Experiment Backlog |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationForecastingFlow | ForecastingFlowDelivery | GrowthRetentionConversion |
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