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| Criterion |  Agile NoEstimates |  Operations Fault Tree Analysis |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When estimating slows a team down more than it helps, it shifts the focus to flow, small slices, and real lead time. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, and Slicing Rules. | For a critical top event with several possible triggers, the method logically models failure paths. It makes visible which combinations of conditions can lead to damage. | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | High |
Timedifferent | laufend | 2-6 h | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend |
Participantsdifferent | 2-12 | 3-8 | 1-8 |
Formatsame | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, Slicing Rules | Fault Tree, Critical Paths, Cause Hypotheses, Control Actions | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationForecastingFlow | RiskRoot causeSafety | ForecastingFlowDelivery |
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Methods with strong topical overlap with the current selection, not yet in the comparison.
