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Criterion
Paper illustration for Monte Carlo Forecasting.
Delivery
Monte Carlo Forecasting
Paper illustration for Three-Point Estimation.
Decision Making
Three-Point Estimation
Paper illustration for PERT Estimation.
Decision Making
PERT Estimation
Purposedifferent
Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication.A single estimate for effort, time, or risk often looks too smooth for the real uncertainty behind it. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a Three-Point Estimate, Risk Range, and Assumption Notes.On complex initiatives, a plain average tends to understate just how uncertain the outcome really is. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as a PERT Estimate, Expected Value, and Risk Notes.
Complexitydifferent
HighMediumMedium
Timedifferent
30-90 min Setup, danach laufend10-30 min je Item15-45 min
Participantssame
1-81-81-8
Formatsame
Workshop + asyncWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk CommunicationThree-Point Estimate, Risk Range, Assumption NotesPERT Estimate, Expected Value, Risk Notes
Tagsno overlap
ForecastingFlowDelivery
EstimationUncertaintyForecasting
EstimationUncertaintyRisk
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Often compared together

Methods with strong topical overlap with the current selection, not yet in the comparison.

Paper illustration for Dot Estimation.
Facilitation
Dot Estimation
Value Stream Mapping workspace showing the question, observations, and next decision.
Delivery
Value Stream Mapping