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| Criterion |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Operations Kepner-Tregoe |  Delivery Value Stream Mapping |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | For a disturbance that's hard to pin down, the method cleanly separates problem, cause, and decision. It reduces mixing when symptoms allow several interpretations. | When delivery work dissolves into wait times, handoffs, and hidden effort, Value Stream Mapping makes the actual flow visible. The method exposes bottlenecks, idle time, and feedback loops so lead time and improvement levers become tangible. |
Complexitydifferent | High | High | Medium |
Timedifferent | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | 2-8 h | 1-3 h |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 2-8 | 4-10 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Problem Analysis, Decision Analysis, Risk Plan | Current-state map, Future-state map, Bottleneck list |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingFlowDelivery | Problem solvingRoot causeDecisionOperations | LeanFlowWasteDelivery |
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