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| Criterion |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Facilitation Dot Estimation |  Product Discovery Riskiest Assumption Test |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets. | When an idea hinges on one critical unknown, it prioritizes testing that exact piece of uncertainty first. It separates problem, assumption, solution, and evidence. The result is captured as a prioritized list of assumptions, a test plan, and a result report. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Low | Medium |
Timedifferent | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | 5-20 min | 1-2 Wochen pro Iteration |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 3-20 | 2-6 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion Targets | Prioritized Assumption List, Test Plan, Results Report |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingFlowDelivery | EstimationEffortRisk | ExperimentsValidationDiscoveryAssumptions |
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