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Criterion
Paper illustration for Monte Carlo Forecasting.
Delivery
Monte Carlo Forecasting
Paper illustration for Dot Estimation.
Facilitation
Dot Estimation
Paper illustration for Fake Door Test
Product Discovery
Fake Door Test
Purposedifferent
Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication.When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets.When demand is still unclear, it measures interest in a feature before it is built. It separates real behavior from polite agreement and deliberately keeps build effort small.
Complexitydifferent
HighLowMedium
Timedifferent
30-90 min Setup, danach laufend5-20 min1-5 Tage
Participantsdifferent
1-83-20Nutzertraffic
Formatdifferent
Workshop + asyncWorkshopAsync
Outputdifferent
Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk CommunicationEffort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion TargetsClick Data, Interest Signal, Learning Decision
Tagsno overlap
ForecastingFlowDelivery
EstimationEffortRisk
ValidationExperimentsDemandDiscovery
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Often compared together

Methods with strong topical overlap with the current selection, not yet in the comparison.

Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Paper illustration of Experiment Canvas with a method-specific labelled workspace.
Product Discovery
Experiment Canvas
Paper illustration of a Learning Card with four fields for hypothesis, observation, insight, and action.
Product Discovery
Learning Card
Paper illustration of MVP Test Matrix with a method-specific labelled workspace.
Product Discovery
MVP Test Matrix