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| Criterion |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Architecture Architecture Decision Record |  Agile NoEstimates |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | An ADR permanently records an architecture decision with context, trade-offs, and consequence. It creates continuity for later changes because the decision path stays traceable. | When estimating slows a team down more than it helps, it shifts the focus to flow, small slices, and real lead time. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, and Slicing Rules. |
Complexitydifferent | High | Low | Medium |
Timedifferent | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | 15-45 min | laufend |
Participantsdifferent | 1-8 | 1-3 | 2-12 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | ADR File, Decision Log, Rationale | Throughput Data, Flow Forecast, Slicing Rules |
Tagsno overlap | ForecastingFlowDelivery | ArchitectureRationaleDocumentationGovernance | EstimationForecastingFlow |
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