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| Criterion |  Agile Ideal Days |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Product Discovery Assumption Mapping |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When effort needs to be thought of as real working time, it offers a simple common denominator for comparison. It sorts work by value, risk, and delivery ability. The result is captured as Ideal Day Estimates, Assumption Notes, and Capacity Caveats. | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | When assumptions still sit unordered in the room, it weighs uncertainty against leverage. It makes visible which hypotheses should be checked first. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | High | Medium |
Timedifferent | 15-60 min | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | 45-60 min |
Participantsdifferent | 2-9 | 1-8 | 2-8 |
Formatsame | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Ideal Day Estimates, Assumption Notes, Capacity Caveats | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Assumption map, Test backlog, Risk ranking |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationEffortAgile | ForecastingFlowDelivery | AssumptionsRiskExperimentsValidation |
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