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| Criterion | ![]() Systems Thinking Futures Wheel | ![]() Delivery Shape Up | ![]() Operations Causal Factor Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | Shape Up helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow. It makes work boundaries and decisions explicit and captures results as pitches, bet-table decisions, and hill charts. | For an event with a complicated course, the method breaks down the contributing factors along the timeline. It shows how conditions, decisions, and reactions together produce a course of events. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Medium | High |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 6 Wochen Cycle + 2 Wochen Cool-Down | 2-6 h |
Participantsdifferent | 3-10 | 2-4 pro Pitch | 3-10 |
Formatsame | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Pitches, Bet-table decisions, Hill charts, Cooldown outcomes | Event Timeline, Causal Factor Chart, Cause List, Corrective Actions |
Tagsno overlap | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | PlanningDeliveryAutonomy | CausalityIncidentRoot causeTimeline |
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