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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Systems Thinking Behavior Over Time Graph |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | A Behavior Over Time Graph shows how a metric or observation develops over time. The method makes trends, breaks, and recurring patterns visible that get lost in snapshots. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | Low |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | 20-45 min |
Participantsdifferent | 3-10 | 1-8 | 1-10 |
Formatsame | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Behavior Over Time Graph, Trend Hypotheses, Key Events |
Tagsno overlap | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | ForecastingFlowDelivery | Systems thinkingPatternsDynamics |
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