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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Operations 5 Whys |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | For a single, hard-to-explain deviation, the method exposes the causal chain behind the visible symptom. It keeps the cause open until a controllable condition emerges instead of a mere description. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | Low |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | 15-30 min |
Participantsdifferent | 3-10 | 1-8 | 2-6 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Root cause notes, Countermeasures |
Tagsno overlap | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | ForecastingFlowDelivery | Root causeIncidentLeanProblem solving |
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