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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Operations Kepner-Tregoe |  Operations Fishbone Diagram |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | For a disturbance that's hard to pin down, the method cleanly separates problem, cause, and decision. It reduces mixing when symptoms allow several interpretations. | When a problem has several possible contributing factors, the method sorts causes by cause areas. It prevents an initial hunch from blocking the view of other plausible drivers. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | Low |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 2-8 h | 30-60 min |
Participantsdifferent | 3-10 | 2-8 | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Problem Analysis, Decision Analysis, Risk Plan | Fishbone Diagram, Cause Categories, Investigation Backlog |
Tagsno overlap | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | Problem solvingRoot causeDecisionOperations | Root causeQualityOperations |
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