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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Facilitation Dot Estimation |  Operations 5 Whys |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets. | For a single, hard-to-explain deviation, the method exposes the causal chain behind the visible symptom. It keeps the cause open until a controllable condition emerges instead of a mere description. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Low | Low |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 5-20 min | 15-30 min |
Participantsdifferent | 3-10 | 3-20 | 2-6 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion Targets | Root cause notes, Countermeasures |
Tagsno overlap | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | EstimationEffortRisk | Root causeIncidentLeanProblem solving |
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