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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Systems Thinking Current Reality Tree |  Facilitation Dot Estimation |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | A Current Reality Tree condenses many symptoms into a few causal chains. The method makes visible which core problems drive several negative effects at once. | When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | High | Low |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 2-6 h | 5-20 min |
Participantsdifferent | 3-10 | 3-8 | 3-20 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Current Reality Tree, Core Problems, Intervention Ideas | Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion Targets |
Tagsno overlap | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | Systems thinkingRoot causeConstraintsCausality | EstimationEffortRisk |
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