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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Futures Wheel |  Decision Making Assumption Surfacing |  Operations Failure Mode and Effects Analysis |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | The Futures Wheel helps explore the consequences of a decision, a trend, or a strategic move in a structured way. It makes visible which first, second, and third-order effects could arise from an event. | Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it. | For a process, product, or service with noticeable failure risks, the method assesses possible failure modes in advance. It directs attention to combinations of occurrence, effect, and detectability. |
Complexitydifferent | Medium | Low | High |
Timedifferent | 60-120 min | 45-90 min | 2-6 h |
Participantsdifferent | 3-10 | 2-8 | 3-10 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop + async | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Futures Wheel, Consequence Chains, Strategic Signals | Assumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning Plan | FMEA Table, Risk Priority, Mitigation Actions |
Tagsno overlap | ForesightSystems thinkingSignals | AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery | RiskQualityOperationsRoot cause |
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