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Criterion
Paper illustration for Future Reality Tree.
Systems Thinking
Future Reality Tree
A hypothetical failure makes concrete risks, signals, and fitting mitigations visible.
Decision Making
Pre-Mortem
Purposedifferent
A Future Reality Tree shows how desired actions are meant to lead to a better system state. The method checks whether a path of change holds together logically before time flows into implementation.In early initiatives with many uncertainties, planning quickly turns too optimistic. A pre-mortem makes the expected failure visible in advance and sharpens the view of causes, gaps, and countermeasures.
Complexitydifferent
HighLow
Timedifferent
2-4 h20–45 min
Participantsdifferent
3-8Small cross-functional group
Formatsame
WorkshopWorkshop
Outputdifferent
Future Reality Tree, Negative Branches, Assumption List, Improved InjectionsRisk list, Mitigation plan, Assumption log
Tagsno overlap
Theory of ConstraintsSystems thinkingChange
RiskDecisionFailurePlanning
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Methods with strong topical overlap with the current selection, not yet in the comparison.

Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Paper illustration for Constraint Analysis.
Decision Making
Constraint Analysis
Paper illustration for Evaporating Cloud.
Systems Thinking
Evaporating Cloud
Paper illustration for Failure Scenario Analysis.
Engineering
Failure Scenario Analysis