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| Criterion |  Systems Thinking Future Reality Tree |  Decision Making Delphi Method |  Systems Thinking Causal Loop Diagram |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | A Future Reality Tree shows how desired actions are meant to lead to a better system state. The method checks whether a path of change holds together logically before time flows into implementation. | When knowledge is distributed and direct dominance should be avoided, groups quickly fall under the sway of their opinion leaders. The Delphi Method gathers assessments iteratively and gradually brings expert judgments closer together. | A Causal Loop Diagram makes feedback, reinforcement, and balance in a system legible. It uncovers side effects and self-reinforcement that stay hidden in linear explanations. |
Complexitydifferent | High | High | Medium |
Timedifferent | 2-4 h | 1-4 Wochen | 1-3 h |
Participantsdifferent | 3-8 | 6-30 Experten | 2-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Future Reality Tree, Negative Branches, Assumption List, Improved Injections | Expert Forecast, Consensus Range, Assumption Notes | Causal Loop Diagram, Feedback Notes, Leverage Points |
Tagsno overlap | Theory of ConstraintsSystems thinkingChange | ForecastingExpertsDecisionStrategy | FeedbackSystems thinkingCausalityDynamics |
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