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Criterion
Paper illustration for Evaporating Cloud.
Systems Thinking
Evaporating Cloud
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Stock and Flow Diagram method illustration showing its working structure
Systems Thinking
Stock and Flow Diagram
Purposedifferent
The method makes visible why two seemingly incompatible demands arise and which assumption must be tested to resolve the conflict.Plans often contain assumptions that were never openly stated and remain dangerous precisely because of that. Assumption Surfacing makes these silent premises visible and prioritizes which of them carry the initiative or could sink it.A Stock and Flow Diagram shows how stocks, inflows, and outflows shape a system over time. It is especially suited when growth, delays, or capacity limits determine the dynamics.
Complexitydifferent
MediumLowHigh
Timedifferent
60-120 min45-90 min2-6 h
Participantsdifferent
2-82-81-6
Formatdifferent
WorkshopWorkshop + asyncWorkshop + async
Outputdifferent
Conflict Cloud, Assumption List, Breakthrough Ideas, Next ExperimentsAssumption List, Critical Assumptions, Learning PlanStock and Flow Model, Dynamics Notes, Simulation Hypotheses
Tagsno overlap
Theory of ConstraintsAssumptionsSystems thinking
AssumptionsRiskDecisionDiscovery
DynamicsSimulationFeedbackSystems thinking
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Often compared together

Methods with strong topical overlap with the current selection, not yet in the comparison.

Causal Loop Diagram workspace showing the question, observations, and next decision.
Systems Thinking
Causal Loop Diagram
Paper illustration of System Dynamics Simulation with its method-specific working model.
Systems Thinking
System Dynamics Simulation
Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Paper illustration for Behavior Over Time Graph.
Systems Thinking
Behavior Over Time Graph