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| Criterion |  Facilitation Dot Estimation |  Delivery Value Stream Mapping |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets. | When delivery work dissolves into wait times, handoffs, and hidden effort, Value Stream Mapping makes the actual flow visible. The method exposes bottlenecks, idle time, and feedback loops so lead time and improvement levers become tangible. | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | Medium | High |
Timedifferent | 5-20 min | 1-3 h | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend |
Participantsdifferent | 3-20 | 4-10 | 1-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Workshop | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion Targets | Current-state map, Future-state map, Bottleneck list | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationEffortRisk | LeanFlowWasteDelivery | ForecastingFlowDelivery |
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