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| Criterion |  Facilitation Dot Estimation |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Decision Making Wideband Delphi |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets. | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | A single opinion rarely holds up for planning when the future is genuinely uncertain. It separates options, evaluation criteria, and open risks. The result is captured as an Estimate Range, Assumption Log, and Expert Consensus Notes. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | High | High |
Timedifferent | 5-20 min | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | 1-4 h or multiple rounds |
Participantsdifferent | 3-20 | 1-8 | 4-12 Experten |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop + async |
Outputdifferent | Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion Targets | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Estimate Range, Assumption Log, Expert Consensus Notes |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationEffortRisk | ForecastingFlowDelivery | EstimationExpertsForecasting |
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