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| Criterion |  Facilitation Dot Estimation |  Delivery Monte Carlo Forecasting |  Systems Thinking Future Reality Tree |
|---|---|---|---|
Purposedifferent | When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets. | Helps clarify scope, sequence, and delivery flow in concrete terms. It makes work, boundaries, and order steerable. The result is captured as Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, and Risk Communication. | A Future Reality Tree shows how desired actions are meant to lead to a better system state. The method checks whether a path of change holds together logically before time flows into implementation. |
Complexitydifferent | Low | High | High |
Timedifferent | 5-20 min | 30-90 min Setup, danach laufend | 2-4 h |
Participantsdifferent | 3-20 | 1-8 | 3-8 |
Formatdifferent | Workshop | Workshop + async | Workshop |
Outputdifferent | Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion Targets | Forecast Percentiles, Throughput Dataset, Risk Communication | Future Reality Tree, Negative Branches, Assumption List, Improved Injections |
Tagsno overlap | EstimationEffortRisk | ForecastingFlowDelivery | Theory of ConstraintsSystems thinkingChange |
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