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Criterion
Paper illustration for Dot Estimation.
Facilitation
Dot Estimation
Paper illustration for Evaporating Cloud.
Systems Thinking
Evaporating Cloud
Purposedifferent
When size or effort can only be estimated roughly, Dot Estimation condenses the group's experience into a quick range. It turns individual contributions into a visible selection. The result is captured as an Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, and Discussion Targets.The method makes visible why two seemingly incompatible demands arise and which assumption must be tested to resolve the conflict.
Complexitydifferent
LowMedium
Timedifferent
5-20 min60-120 min
Participantsdifferent
3-202-8
Formatsame
WorkshopWorkshop
Outputdifferent
Effort Heatmap, Risk Signals, Discussion TargetsConflict Cloud, Assumption List, Breakthrough Ideas, Next Experiments
Tagsno overlap
EstimationEffortRisk
Theory of ConstraintsAssumptionsSystems thinking
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Methods with strong topical overlap with the current selection, not yet in the comparison.

Paper illustration of a calm four-quadrant Assumption Map with hypothesis cards and emphasis on important assumptions with little evidence.
Product Discovery
Assumption Mapping
Paper illustration of an assumption matrix with prioritized test cards
Decision Making
Assumption Surfacing
Paper illustration for Future Reality Tree.
Systems Thinking
Future Reality Tree